| Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry |
| Travis Bradford, MIT Press, 2006, 238 pages, £9.99. |
| Concern over fuel price volatility and reliability of fuel supplies has given new currency to the work of W S Jevons, the bestselling Victorian economist who adapted Malthusian pessimism over the limits to economic growth to the industrial age. The Coal Question (1865) predicted the exponential growth in use of fossil fuels would inexorably exhaust Britain’s coal reserves in and its wake stymie the country’s standard of living. Jevons did not anticipate the emergence of oil and nuclear power, so his dire forecasts have not come true. Yet, Jevons did allow for the possibility that one day alternative energy sources may be discovered, one of these being solar power: “Among the residual possibilities of unforeseen events, it is just possible that some day the sunbeams may be collected, or that some source of force now unknown may be detected.” |
| Travis Bradford seeks to bring Jevons up to date by arguing that what once may have seemed a fool’s paradise has now become a distinct possibility. Bradford advances the view that solar energy is set to assume a pivotal role in transforming tomorrow’s energy market. |
| The first half of Solar Revolution narrates how the world’s developed economies are addicted to fossil fuels as a source of energy and how this dependence has shaped the organisation of industrial structures. The world’s twelve largest companies account for 4% of global GDP. Of these, six are fossil-fuel providers, four produce automobiles, and one manufactures turbines. Coal, oil and gas for over a century have been first best choice to fuel electricity, transport and heating applications. For many years, the rate of exhaustion of fossil fuel resources has outstripped the discovery of new ones. This industrial structure, says Bradford, faces obsolescence once the energy demands of a growing number of industrial nations around the globe outstrip supply. The cost of energy will be heading up. Bradford concludes our standards of living depend on harnessing new fuel sources. |
| The second half of Bradford’s book makes the case for the viability of solar energy. Japan, a country importing 85% of her energy, decades ago took a lead in solar energy R & D expenditure and according to Bradford today numbers 46 million households where solar electricity is cost-competitive with electricity supplied by the grid. Bradford’s key message is that solar energy can undercut centralised delivery of electricity via the grid. This assertion is predicated on key assumptions: on the cost side, critical variables for the economic viability of solar energy are hours of sunshine, local cost of electricity, and system costs. On the benefit side, key variables are assumptions regarding market growth, experience-curve rates, and financing rates. Hence, Bradford argues, a successful transition to a meaningful share of solar energy in a nation’s energy mix relies on integrated policy design that promotes market-led economies of scale in production and targeted governmental intervention (for example, by requiring solar panels in new, low-carbon building). |
| Economist readers may wish Bradford would have devoted more space to explaining his assumptions in the main body of the text rather than relegating them to footnotes, and to explaining how he can be sure they are valid. Even so, Bradford’s neo-Jevonian stance serves as a useful primer on an under-researched area of energy economics. |
| Benedikt Koehler |
| The author works for the Department of Energy and Climate Change. He writes in a personal capacity. |
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