| Amar Bhidé; Oxford University Press, 2010, 368pp,
£18.99. |
| The unparalleled ferocity of the 2008 credit crunch,
and the world-wide contraction of activity and trade which resulted, has
spawned an altogether new variety of ‘whodunnit’ literature. Indeed,
booksellers’ shelves are now groaning under the weight of books
analysing and dissecting what went wrong and who was to blame for the
parlous state in which global business found itself just over two years
ago. |
| Understandably so. The economic and financial
disaster of 2008-9 had been generally unexpected. And the shock imparted
by this cataclysmic event was all the greater insofar as it was preceded
by the extraordinary hubris of the ‘Great Moderation’ and the unbridled
optimism displayed by the financial markets. |
| Equally understandably, the majority of this
post-mortem literature has concluded on a forward-looking note, asking
what should be done to prevent a repetition of such a disaster in future
years. And other books, of course, have made this ‘what should be done’
question their major concern. A Call For Judgement is very much in the
latter vein. |
| On this reformist score, much advocacy has focused
upon the need to eliminate, or at least reduce, the ‘global imbalances’
which are reckoned to have played a key role in laying the ground for
the crisis; on the necessity for policy makers to identify and act to
restrain speculative asset price bubbles; and on the desirability of
developing a range of effective ‘early-warning’ indicators which will
warn of trouble ahead. |
| It has, however, been the extraordinary
malfunctioning of the financial system – which had been previously
imagined to have had robust foundations – which has received the lion’s
share of the reformist attention. The behaviour of investment bankers,
central bankers, rating agencies and regulators has been widely derided,
with the ‘light-touch’ regulatory regimes which previously prevailed now
regarded as amazingly naive. So far, however, the steps taken to improve
banks’ balance sheets, to limit excessive risk-taking and to ensure the
future good behaviour and resiliency of banking systems have been pretty
limited, to say the least. The bankers have played what initially looked
to be an exceptionally weak hand with great skill. And the widely-
expected populist backlash against the workings and dire consequences of
the financial ancien regime has been conspicuous by its absence – to the
puzzlement of many, including myself. |
| A Call For Judgement makes a significant
contribution to the reformist debate, arguing that the changes propose
and implanted so far – or ‘technical tweaks’, as the author so aptly
describes them – are woefully inadequate to tame future excesses and
thereby reduce the risk of another financial crisis in coming years and
that much more substantive changes are, therefore, necessary. |
| In this latter regard, Bhidé takes a stand with
other forthright critics of inadequate banking reform – whether Paul
Volcker, Joseph Stiglitz, Simon Johnson, Mervyn King or John Kay – and
makes his own controversial and indeed heavyweight contribution to the
debate, taking as his starting-point the premise that: “Finance has been
on the wrong trajectory for more than half a century: its defects derive
from academic theories and regulatory structures whose origins date back
to the 1930s”. |
| Much of this fairly lengthy book is devoted to an
historical analysis of how the current state of play came about and a
tightly-argued exposition of the current system’s faults and failings.
Bhidé concludes, however, by offering several critical policy
prescriptions which comprise in toto a fundamental, ‘root and branch’
re-ordering of how our financial system is organised and operates. |
| I greatly enjoyed this book. It covers a lot of
ground and might, therefore, seem daunting. Significantly, though, I
found it an increasingly compelling read and concluded that it delivers
an impressive and valuable contribution to what ought to remain an
absolutely central issue from the perspective of the proper functioning
of the ‘plumbing’ of our economic system and, therefore, our future
well-being. |
Ian Harwood
Chief Economist, Evolution Securities |
|